Economy theory and economy practices in China,foreign exchange market.

I have repeatedly talked about the importance of the RMB bond market. RMB exchange rate is the root of the Chinese economy, China's financial market is also fundamental. Allow the yuan to the international, first big military power of China, China's military more powerful, how much will the yuan. In turn, is said: how strong China's real economy, the RMB will have support. Only in U.S. dollars credit to support the RMB is unreliable.
(A) of the U.S. dollar is still the equivalent of the world's wealth

Although the dollar after they broke off with the gold dollar in fact long-term excess distribution, has been reversed. But the dollar still represents 70% of global wealth, the U.S. financial market leader, attached to the United States there is a strong military power, because of U.S. military power to sustain the financial big "Casino", the U.S. dollar over the fundamental issue no problem, medium and long term can be well absorbed, which is more than some of the world's wealth with dollar currency play zero-sum game in eliminating it. Although multiple dollars in the "bypass" is not necessarily a bad thing, but it may be time bombs, think only for the capital market,. If you catch the financial markets into "bypass" the train, then to his eyes fixed up, ready to Bump. Although you may be bolted beneficiary of the train, the same loss of track may be the victims of the train ......

And other currencies do not have this basic capability. Zhou Xiaochuan, strongly advocated in the world currency, Jiangnan think is simply impossible, unless the country team concept to die! The "currency war" became popular in the Song of teachers referred to the gold standard, I do not agree, think: Page history has been turned over N, Jin and Yuan currency gone forever.
(B) where the credit of RMB

I have been emphasizing the issue RMB credit. The credit of RMB at this stage is that the U.S. debt credit. With the U.S. dollar's military strength, despite the storm, was shocked to hide an aircraft carrier in full play the fool, the devaluation is not derogatory, remained intact. RMB because the sugar daddy for a long time, Tian Zhelian bluntly also rub in a small room over the winter. China will continue to buy U.S. Treasury bonds? Yes! That is RMB credit rent. So do not complain about the Chinese people still do not buy U.S. debt, it is the best haven for the yuan at the present stage. But the renminbi credit debt can not long exist attached to the U.S., still need Jian Shi, aircraft carriers, large aircraft, etc. China's military strength. These are the basic credit of RMB.

What to support China's military strength, it is China's real economy. Six months to see a lot of news, the most glittering hearts than most encouraging domestic demand, boosting domestic consumption. South individual is skeptical. China can not transform into a "domestic," which, the next two years is but steadily people, just crossing the tide over the crisis.

China's real economy still needs to be doubled to achieve exports, once a successful real manufacturing country and other Asian countries is not a rival, it means that China's military power of the dream come true! China's real economic need to increase the technological revolution the concept of revolution and the competition of talents. This game has been proved by history, after the United States, and dare to play the premise. But the character of the Chinese people, I think this game, the next ten years, is unlikely to play. China is creating a lack of leader-type character of soil, then, from the Latin American style is not far off.
(C) establish a renminbi bond market to get rid of the artificial control of the State

I have been calling for the establishment of the RMB bond market, with the market, before we talk about international currency RMB. It is possible to enlarge the amount of the country's monetary policy will be subject to a certain degree of limitation can not be arbitrary issuance of currency, artificially devalued, then the real estate market and stock market volatility relative to smaller, more countries have not only benefit investors individuals. Cyclical fluctuations in the financial crisis, of course, is not included.

When the number of the RMB exchange rate from a large strong government control (small control central banks are doing of course), along with the normal ups and downs of the futures market, the RMB exchange rate began to enlivened. Only by relying on the commodity market of RMB snake crawling, its currency credit only to rely on, to when a government can not shoulder to shoulder with them. Only to the extent that the yuan can and fight against the Japanese yen. A money market is relatively mature, A shares to maturity, and to talk about long-term investment. Otherwise, however, Mr Bin "time of the Rose" is always the dream of Chinese investors.

Some people say: the establishment of the RMB bond market, the yuan would be attacked. Him out. Free market principles is to allow others to do with the large-scale backstepping computer operations as calculating as you crack the password is overvalued or undervalued, so that central banks or the Government to do self-adjustment to reflect the market.

China's market economy status is confirmed, if the yuan does not go the market, the Chinese economy will become more distorted, strong China is a dream.

Author: fenghao.cui
Most investors in the equity investment process have had this complaint: "I know it is only the stock, that is, hold on. More investors said that stocks are almost all doubles have bought is up point to sell. "The question really is the real difficulties faced by long-term investors, the real challenge is long-term investors, but also the success of long-term investors hard-relations effort.

For to solve this problem, first of all we have to solve a problem of concept: 'frequent trading can really bring you profits? '
Many investors sell high, buy low you can earn more than the long-term hold. The theoretical study and practical proven in the U.S. stock market, this is totally wrong. Frequent trading and investors trying to profit from trading, has never been beyond the long-term holders, and I never beat the broader market, this is a hard fact. Investment funds make money by trading, not long beat the market index. This conclusion is many U.S. fund manager and experience as well as the financial sector consistent with decades of empirical research findings.

The number of U.S. mutual funds has more than 10,000 (the number of listed stocks of about 8000 or so)
More than 10,000 mutual funds, only 2073 has been in existence for over 10 years. The 2073 Fund. Stock picking styles vary, but one thing is common: the thousands of fund managers want to make money, everyone would like more than others, all rely on a trading beat the market index. But the real what? 2073 fund statistics over the past 10 years as follows: The average mutual fund return was 9.85%, while the U.S. weighted index of all listed companies, the average annual return was 18.26%; please pay special attention to the 2073 Fund, at least
"Living next 10 years" 10 000 funds in the best, even better is the performance of the fund, they rely on frequent trading operations or rate of return than tape!

Most people are willing to deal, because that "I'm stronger than most people"
! This attitude is frequently over-confidence of individuals and fund transactions, but the broader market over one of the reasons. However, logically, how can the capacity of most people than the average person is that? Conceited, thinking that the frequency of operation of extraordinary ability, in fact, the market is blind to the nature of the performance of the market, there are tens of thousands of smart brains like you, trying to become smarter than you, this number of thousands of people are thinking over other investors, their behavior is ultimately a result of short-term stock price becomes unpredictable and unexpected situation, so short-term trends and the price is never right to judge to never be able to determine the correct operation is carried out whereby a certain sum of less. Reduce the number of operations itself, to avoid unnecessary mistakes and risks, that is, you just simply reduce the number of transactions, you can enhance the ability in other circumstances, the effective level of investment has increased. If you do not believe the Fair lower income, then you will continue to do swing trading, to reduce the capital account to help you to deeply understand the truth now!

Second, you will need to be aware why you buy stock, you want the stock to achieve what purpose. Investors may say, That goes without saying it? Of course, is money. Ling Tong Investment answer is: as long-term investors, buying stocks and a more important reason and purpose. You want to hold the stock as a partner in this enterprise, in your view of this business is your business (no matter how many shares you buy), you have the business purpose of the stock, hoping to achieve through this business you the value of life and ideals, achievements of your life career. Such a goal that is the stock you choose the standard, and also the source of your confidence in shares. It must decide this business you will work with the life and death, perish. This business is your all, is your key to success or failure in life. In this case, how can you profit point easily sell their holdings on it? To succeed in life, the ideal practice is it a 10%, 20% of the increase can reach it? If not several times, 10 times the growth, is called the life of success? Investors who think so, do so, people will be confused by a small profit. Our market, there are so few people have considered that all people are like a small business like hawkers, shuffling back and forth, buy to buy, who had seen a small traders earn a small profiteers had a lot of money. Unfortunately, almost 100% of the market who are small traders mentality, the mentality of small vendors can not be patient and holding the enemy, it must abandon the mentality of small traders, only to abandon this mentality and establish buy shares is to achieve in life value of the mentality to be able to buy good stocks, it can take against unemployment, to ultimate success.

Third, if you set up the first and the second idea, still hold on to, you may be held by your investments and stocks, not very deep understanding, but understanding the general Fanfan. Investment in a stock of the company's familiar, like on your own familiarity with the same respect you want the company from production to sales, to the personnel, to the strategy, the organization and management, to the same competition, the industry trends of industrial policy must fully and thoroughly familiar with and grasp, you should eventually reach their own enterprises such a familiarity. If, one day, as the shareholders elect the new chairman of the company, then you took office to be able to dry than the former chairman of the board is also good. In other words, your level of understanding of the company and at least understanding of the company as chairman.

Fourth, if the first and second, three have reached the case, you still hold on to, then the reason may be that you lack experience, need to practice honing, you try to figure out and many experienced multiple times, you will naturally mature . Of course, if you repeatedly temper, be patient still can not hold, then you should consider withdrawing from this business. Difficulties for the psychological characteristics of your personality may not be suitable for investment.

Know the cause of the reasons to hold on, and will have a solution to the problem, for the first, you must bear in mind, the transaction can not let you make money, frequent trading is a highway leading to failure, if you do not believe go ask around you master of the short-term earnings, of course, to see if they can master their own immediate short-term account so much the better. The second is not difficult, you have to hire Buffett success in life only because he Coca-Cola, Gillette blades, Washington Post, Wells Fargo, took nearly 30 years, only 24% of the average annual income, success in life and life as simple as the failure of the last note is that you better hold three to five such stocks, rather than one. Third, a company is not difficult to understand, it is a process that took the longer, deeper understanding. Article IV, while practical side of the summary, not three times you will have realized the truth, at the beginning of failure is an inevitable process.

From I wrote <> than a month, I insisted that: 2010 is the year of eradication of mobility! It for the next 11 months, China's capital market has guiding significance.
A-share market

Contraction of liquidity in 2010, A-share market value does not have a long-term operation, lovers grab a rebound, but the height can not be too optimistic. In order to observe the market, I selected two stocks, large cap China Vanke A, tracking a rebound feel strong enough, the last day before I leave the weak profit clearance; another Shanghai ability small cap stocks, making aggressive speculation will repeatedly and then immediately connect the two limit-down limit of two similar, moves a speculative phase. Shanghai 3000 in this location, small cap stock has nearly 6,000 shares. This market is firm and not my personal favorites.
If after the Spring Festival, will also pull large cap, only to stumble in the second half even more violent!
Personally, I think: A stock market trading in 2010. Small capital or non-participation as well.
Commodity Futures Market
2010 is a very difficult year of operation.

While inflation is expected to become more intense, on the other hand, elimination of liquidity I think the main theme of this year. So the operation the largest commodity futures market, the uncertainty is the uncertainty of the policy will inevitably lead to short-term of operation. For the large hedge funds, simply can not operate year.
If too radical, unexpected events make the cost of capital constraints have forced fund liquidation, could trigger a chain reaction, the consequences could be very serious.

This morning, I go out to something, the car was blocked in the national highway. The driver looked back down, said: "The two workers were blocked off with two broken bicycles blocked." On a few minutes, our car has no back. There are two bike out of the way before and after a car queue, let a pedestrian caught in a dilemma. Block national highway will be arrested, and good in the Yangtze River Delta were good temper, the two police officer sitting on the floor hurry kindly migrant workers talk with the driver seems to be understanding, no one forced to carry out of the way of his car, diverted away very orderly retreat.

Although the late arrival for a while, not obstruction event. However, if the continuation of this confrontation, it will be very difficult for local governments in China, may have to obstruction event.

Why this happens, is that the poor economy. Last Thursday by China's central bank raising short-term interest rates and a slight increase in money market operations to tighten liquidity actions, or village women are so worried about the real economy at this stage what level do not sign it started. Said the strong recovery of economic growth in China can be said nonsense.

After this week to five days next week to face large shocks A Shares